This chart takes a snapshot of the Top 50 countries which currently have the highest estimated cumulative excess mortality rate. It groups the countries by World Bank income groups and ranks them within each income group by the estimated cumulative excess mortality rate in the last 12 months. The comparison of countries among their per capita income peers (as captured by the World Bank income classification) is useful to account for differences in structural features between income groups.
The excess death estimates are the mid-point estimates derived from excess death model of The Economist, which fills data gaps on the basis of a machine-learning algorithm that learns from official excess mortality date, where available, and over 100 other statistical indicators. The indicator is available on a weekly frequency and its values are converted into a smoothed average. For more details on methods and sources, check out the excess mortality entry in the list of background notes below.
The excess mortality rate expresses all-cause excess fatalities relative to the size of the population. By relating excess mortality to population size, we get a measure of the burden of disease. In contrast to the absolute mortality toll, the mortality rate provides an indication of the performance of country or group of countries in terms of protecting its population against death in the context of the pandemic.