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The recent Omicron/Delta appears to have spared noone, including countries that have previously managed to suppress the spread of the virus well. Of key interest therefore is how the East Asia & Pacific region has been doing. We have recently seen a sharp increase in cases in the region, which reflects its catch-up to the reality of more transmissible variants. But it also reflects a move towards greater acceptance of “living with COVID” and, conversely, away from zero-covid approaches of maximum suppression.
A look at the data
Let’s first review global trends. The chart below shows the evolution of newly confirmed cases (and also deaths) per million people over the full course of the pandemic. This is daily data, but the solid lines reflect the 7-day trailing average day-by-day. The scale of the recent Omicron/Delta wave is clear as is the subsequent downward trend in both cases and deaths. The chart below shows the more recent period, where the shaded area reflects the first Omicron/Delta wave followed by a second one that started early March 2022 and has subsequently dissipated.
Next, let’s cut the data by World Bank region. The charts below clearly show that most of the action during the first wave was driven by the North America region (NAM) and the Europe & Central Asia region (ECA). ECA also remained key in the second wave (around March-April). Of note, however is the surge of the EAP region during that period. Because EAP is such a large region population-wise, the absolute contribution to the global surge is particularly pronounced.
Policy shifts
The East Asia & Pacific region has been widely praised for its performance over the course of the pandemic in terms of containing spread and limiting morbidity and mortality. Several countries in the region have effectively relied on large-scale testing and tracing and strict quarantine and isolation policies, which has helped keep cases and fatalities well below those of their peers in other regions.
The recent Omicron/Delta wave appears to have changed that in certain respects. The region overall continues to perform well relative to other regions, but compared to its own past performance it is clear that the recent wave has posed new challenges. Containment in the face of a highly transmissible variant has become more difficult and the costs associated with it more burdensome, while the benefits amidst more widespread vaccination have also diminished.
Against this backdrop, several countries have relaxed suppression policies and have adopted greater tolerance towards “living with COVID”, offering a welcome reprieve from economic and social points of view. International borders are becoming more fluid and individual freedoms less confined, which should over time all contribute to greater productivity and well-being.
Hong Kong SAR
For any “living with COVID” strategy to be feasible and desirable, it is important to have an effective vaccine line of defense in place. The hyper-contagious nature of Omicron means that it will eventually find a way to the most vulnerable, as the recent experience of Hong Kong SAR has illustrated.
In conclusion
Cases have been on a downward trend globally. But recent developments mainly in the EAP region have perturbed that pattern and have contributed to a reversal, which by now has dissipated.
The growth of cases in EAP reflects the catch-up of the region to a reality that other regions have faced already, namely that of a more transmissible variant that is harder and therefore more costly to suppress.
It also reflects the policy shift of several countries towards greater acceptance of a “living with COVID” approach, which depending on vaccine coverage may offer tangible economic and social benefits.