Wake us up before you go, O!
The world remains underprepared against the downside contingency of a highly contagious and more lethal variant. If it materializes, what will we wish then we had done differently today?
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The recent Omicron/Delta appears to have spared no one, including countries that have previously managed to suppress the spread of the virus well. Of key interest therefore is how the East Asia & Pacific region has been doing. We have recently seen a sharp increase in cases in the region, which reflects its catch-up to the reality of more transmissible variants. But it also reflects a move towards greater acceptance of “living with COVID” and, conversely, away from zero-covid approaches of maximum suppression.
To get a better appreciation of the underlying trends driving the global picture, let’s cut the data first by World Bank income classification. The charts below plot daily new cases relative to population and in absolute terms. As we can see, global developments in reported cases continue to be carried by mainly the high-income countries. This is true both in relative and absolute terms.
Next, let’s cut the data by World Bank region. The charts below clearly show that most of the action during the first wave was driven by the North America region (NAM) and the Europe & Central Asia region (ECA). ECA also remained key in the second wave (around March-April). Of note, however is the surge of the EAP region during that period. Because EAP is such a large region population-wise, the absolute contribution to the global surge is particularly pronounced.
The East Asia & Pacific region has been widely praised for its performance over the course of the pandemic in terms of containing spread and limiting morbidity and mortality. Several countries in the region have effectively relied on large-scale testing and tracing and strict quarantine and isolation policies, which has helped keep cases and fatalities well below those of their peers in other regions.
The recent Omicron/Delta wave appears to have changed that in certain respects. The region overall continues to perform well relative to other regions, but compared to its own past performance it is clear that the recent wave has posed new challenges. Containment in the face of a highly transmissible variant has become more difficult and the costs associated with it more burdensome, while the benefits amidst more widespread vaccination have also diminished.
Against this backdrop, several countries have relaxed suppression policies and have adopted greater tolerance towards “living with COVID”, offering a welcome reprieve from economic and social points of view. International borders are becoming more fluid and individual freedoms less confined, which should over time all contribute to greater productivity and well-being.
Cases have been on a downward trend globally. But recent developments mainly in the EAP region have perturbed that pattern and have contributed to a reversal, which by now has dissipated in several countries.
The growth of cases in EAP reflects the catch-up of the region to a reality that other regions have faced already, namely that of a more transmissible variant that is harder and therefore more costly to suppress.
It also reflects the policy shift of several countries towards greater acceptance of a “living with COVID” approach, which depending on vaccine coverage may offer tangible economic and social benefits.
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If US states were countries, how many would be in the global Top 50 for cases per capita?
Waves have been roughly synchronized, but mortality impacts have been anything but similar
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