This dynamic chart shows the evolution of vaccination progress across countries and by World Bank income classification. It measures whether the vaccines administered are sufficient to be able to cover the total global population. Universal coverage of the full population would turn the chart into a blue donut, with no gaps across or within countries.

The chart distinguishes between the extensive and intensive margins of vaccination progress. The extensive margin captures the extent to which countries are participating in vaccination efforts. This can be observed in the circular progress bar, which shows the share of countries, by income group, that report nonzero vaccination data.  The visualization also colors the country codes of countries in the outer circle according to whether positive vaccination data is being reported (blue means yes; grey means no). The intensive margin measures vaccination progress within countries. The outward-oriented bars capture their efforts to raise the coverage ratio all the way to 200%  (on the vertical axis). 

Technical details

Vaccine protocols

The distribution of vaccine doses across countries is described on the basis of data on the actual doses administered. The reasons why the numbers may be low can vary widely and include international vs domestic factors as well as supply versus demand factors.  At this moment in time, however, the most likely reason for low numbers is related to international supply bottlenecks. 

An additional complication pertains to the treatment of doses. The vaccine landscape is diverse with different treatment protocols in terms of the number doses that need to be administered, the dosage of each dose and the length of time between them. Vaccines differ in terms of their efficacy and deviations from the prescribed protocol dilute efficacy in uncertain ways.  This matters as countries consider to speed up vaccination by e.g. changing, reducing or delaying doses.

The approach taken here in the face of this diversity of possibilities is to express vaccination coverage in terms of single doses at full dosage as per the treatment protocol and convert all vaccines to a common denominator of the double-dose protocol. This means that for the purpose of considering whether someone has achieved full vaccination we require that two doses have been administered. 

Double-dose equivalence is imposed on single-dose vaccines by simply multiplying the number of single-doses administered by two. In this way, when adding up single doses of single-dose protocols and single doses of double-dose protocols, we can keep the threshold of 200% vaccine coverage as indicating full coverage.

As of early March 2021, this adjustment makes virtually no difference as there is only 1 country (South Africa) in the universe of countries considered here that is administering a vaccine that has a single-dose protocol (Johnson&Johnson).

Universe of countries

The FY2021 World Bank income classification lists a total of 218 countries/economies, where the term country, used interchangeably with economy, does not imply political independence but refers to any territory for which authorities report separate social or economic statistics. This lists includes a number of territories and dependencies with populations above 30,000 people, as per the World Development Indicators database.

We narrow this list down to 196 countries/economies by retaining only the member states of the UN, one non-member state with observer status (the State of Palestine listed as West Bank and Gaza in the income classification) and two members/observers in UN Specialized Agencies  (Kosovo and Chinese Taipei listed as Taiwan, China in the income classification). The Holy See, Cook Islands and Niue are excluded as they are not included in the WB income classification.  A further 22 territories and dependencies (21 HIC and 1 UMIC) are excluded from the WB income classification because they are not identified as members or observers of the UN and UN specialized agencies.

Note that the vaccination data is pulled from Our World in Data, which utilizes a slightly different universe of locations. In sticking with the above 196 countries and economies, we have made the following adjustments relative to the OWID universe.

  • Given their UN membership status, we extract the following UN members from US totals and list them separately:
    • Federated States of Micronesia;
    • Marshall Islands;
    • Republic of Palau.
  • Conversely, given that they are not identified as separate members of the UN or UN specialized agencies, we do not separately mention the following entities but instead include their data into the totals of the country they are a territory or dependency of:
    • Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR are added to China totals;
    • Faroe Islands and Greenland are added to Denmark totals;
    • Curaça are added to the totals of The Netherlands;
    • Data for Anguilla, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Falkland Islands, Gibraltar, Guernsey, Isle of Man, Jersey, Montserrat, Saint Helena and Turks and Caicos are add to the totals of the United Kingdom.

For each of the above adjustments to the vaccination data, we make adjustments to the demographic data that vaccine information is related to (including population size, age structure and priority group size).

Finally, note that no adjustments are required to the totals for France as its overseas territories and dependencies are already included as part of the total for France.